The longer California's budget impasse drags on, the more likely public schools and welfare programs are at risk of cuts, according to educators and advocates for the poor monitoring negotiations inside the Capitol.

As California enters the third week of its new fiscal year without an approved budget, advocates are hoping lawmakers stay true to their pledge of protecting the state's young learners and the needy. Democratic leaders plan to bring a new version of their spending plan up for a vote in both houses Wednesday even though Republican lawmakers are balking at the proposal for not doing enough to control an estimated $3.4 billion deficit.

Contrary to Assembly Speaker Fabian Núñez's pledge not to "take the canes away from the blind" or "kick people out of their wheelchairs," some advocates worry that Republican pressure to control spending will force Democratic leaders to accept unpalatable cuts, including K-12 education and assistance to the poor, blind and disabled.

The speaker denied considering such cuts but declined to detail Democratic proposals.

"I never have agreed nor proposed to make a cut to the education (cost of living adjustment)," Núñez said in a meeting with The Bee Capitol Bureau. "Some may have floated the idea, but I've never agreed to do that."

On Monday, Democrats said their revised proposal will decrease the Schwarzenegger administration's $1.4 billion operating deficit by around $100 million. Democratic leaders also promised a bigger operating reserve.

"I believe it's so firm and so strong that it's going to be difficult for Republicans to vote against it," Núñez said. "If they do ... they're going to look like the obstructionists."

Assembly GOP leader Mike Villines scoffed at the assessment. The Clovis politician said, "There will be no Republican votes," then went on to characterize the upcoming vote as more of a drill than an impassioned stance by Democrats.

Since July 1, California has been operating without a budget because lawmakers can't agree on a compromise. Republican support is needed because California is one of three states that requires two-thirds legislative support to pass a budget.

Villines said he believes the Democrats' proposal will aggravate the state's fiscal problems in the future. The Republican leader said the other party increases the state's operating deficit by $400 million, which he called a "non-starter for everyone."

State leaders have been warned that the state faces a $5.5 billion shortfall in fiscal 2008-09.

Without commenting on specific proposals, Villines said there are ways to preserve education in the current budget negotiation.

"Everything's on the table," he said, "but I believe there are ways to get there without education being touched."

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger in May released a $103.8 billion general fund budget that preserved a cost-of-living increase for K-12 education, which commands $41.9 billion of the budget -- the state's single largest expenditure.

Although funding is mandated under a complex formula endorsed by California voters under Proposition 98, education advocates say budget writers can get creative with what numbers to plug into the equation, potentially raising or lowering education's share of funding.

"As long as we keep learning negative news about the overall fiscal condition of the state, education advocates can't rest until the final budget's done," said Kevin Gordon, a consultant on education budget issues.

Advocates have grown concerned enough to send letters to lawmakers asking to view draft budget language. The Education Management Group, which represents school boards, administrators, and superintendents, urged Sen. Denise Ducheny, co-chair of the Budget Conference Committee, to allow for public input.

The letter stated: "All deserve an opportunity to review and comment on the proposal at hand, no matter how preliminary they may be."

Even at smaller mandated programs, staff members are feeling tense. Mike Herald, an attorney with the Western Center on Law and Poverty, which advocates for low-income Californians, said public assistance programs for the blind, aged and disabled, as well as foster-care programs, have grown.

Because the Legislature has flexibility in making reductions in such areas, Herald said, he's "been very concerned that the Republican demands that we reduce spending will inevitably lead to reductions in social service programs."

Sacramento Bee, July 17, 2007